Tagged: carlos lee

Carlos Lee needs to go

I’ve tried to be a Carlos Lee supporter. I don’t hate Carlos Lee. Compared to the loathing for him spewed by many Astros fans since the start of last season, I’ve been downright cuddly with the guy. But enough is enough. His time as an Astro needs to come to an end – now.

I’m more upset by the Chris Johnson/Brett Wallace demotions than I am by the Hunter Pence/Michael Bourn trades. I understand the demotions from a purely performance or playing time perspective: Chris Johnson just suffered through an awful July with a .574 OPS. Brett Wallace posted an even worse .433 OPS over the same stretch. Neither of the two is a particularly great defender (although Wallace is at least adequate), and if you can’t hit and you can’t field, you don’t belong in the big leagues. But if the Astros’ trades this month have indicated anything, it’s that they’re very clearly trying to get younger and planning for the future. Both Johnson and Wallace still have a good chance of being a part of that future. Carlos Lee, on the other hand, does not.

Wallace was sent down because J.D. Martinez was called up. I’m excited that J.D. is here. But not at Brett’s expense. I realize that the overwhelming majority of Martinez’ outfield experience is in left, and that the same is true of Carlos Lee. It wouldn’t really be fair, or wise, to call up Martinez straight from AA and then expect him to adjust to big league pitching and to a new position at the same time. But that pushes Lee out of left. The only other place you can put Lee is at first base, which pushes Wallace to the bench, and that’s not fair or wise for a young player, either. So I’d rather see Wallace play every day at AAA than ride the bench in Houston. But I’d really rather see Wallace play every day in Houston, and see Carlos Lee cut loose.

It’s true that Lee has been a better hitter than Wallace for the majority of the season. Since an awful April in which Carlos hit .194, he’s posted an .824 OPS over the next three months. Compare that to an .828 OPS for Pence this season, and an .831 OPS for Lee in his last “good” season of 2009. Minus the home run power, El Caballo seems to have regained his stroke. But he’s also 35 years old this year, and he’ll be 36 in 2012 for the final year of his contract, and there’s no way on Earth that he’ll be a part of the Astros team after that. They’re on the hook for the remainder of his salary whether he plays here or not. So if they’re really dedicated to this youth movement, if they’re really dedicated to the future, then why keep giving at bats to a guy who has no chance to be a part of that?

It may be that the Astros’ hands are genuinely tied in the matter. Even if it wasn’t for his massive contract making him undesirable, Lee has full no-trade protection, and with his cattle ranch in Houston, he’s not inclined to go anywhere. Ed Wade may have asked him to waive his no-trade clause, and Carlos may have flat out refused. That’s his right. But everyone that knows Carlos personally will talk about what a nice guy he is… so why not do something for the good of the team? Does he really want to be the only 35-year-old on a team full of 25-and-unders? A team that’s buried in the cellar this year, that probably won’t be much better next year, with no shot at the postseason before he’s forced to sign elsewhere anyway? If the Astros will eat a healthy chunk of the salary they’ll be paying regardless, there are contenders out there that would love to add a bat like Lee’s for the stretch run. His only taste of the playoffs so far was when he was a 24-year-old sophomore himself back in 2000, and his White Sox got swept in three games by Seattle. Wouldn’t he like another shot at the World Series? There’s no better time for that than now.

I realize that no team likes to pay a guy to play elsewhere. But it makes sense for the Astros to try and do just that in Lee’s case. If they’ll agree to pay two-thirds, or three-fourths, or even nine-tenths of his remaining salary, they’ll still save themselves a few million dollars and likely be able to get a prospect or two in return – guys that would have a chance to be a part of Houston’s next winner. I don’t mind Brett Wallace’s AAA exile so much if the Astros are actively shopping Lee in the meantime. There’s no safer bet to clear waivers this month than Carlos, so a trade could – and should – still happen. Maybe it will take Jim Crane’s new ownership for that to happen, but Crane should officially take over this month too. It would be better to get even long-shot prospects in return for Lee than nothing at all. But it will be better for the long-term health of this club either way to let Wallace man first base in Houston than to leave him (or J.D. Martinez) stuck behind Carlos Lee for another year. If Lee adamantly refuses a trade, then be bold and just cut him loose.

Maybe Wallace isn’t the long-term answer at first base; maybe Kody Hinze or Jonathon Singleton is. Maybe Chris Johnson isn’t the long-term answer at third, either, and maybe Jimmy Paredes is. But we won’t know until we let them play, and Wallace and Johnson are more ready for the big leagues now than Paredes or Hinze are. Yes, Brett and CJ have had their struggles, but they’ve shown signs of something better, too. By the time that Hinze and Paredes genuinely are ready for the big leagues, we should know about Wallace and Johnson for sure. As long as there’s not anyone standing in their way. When Carlos Lee was signed to his big contract, the Astros were just one year removed from the World Series and had only missed the playoffs in 2006 on the final day of the season. They’re in a much different place now, and Lee’s place on this team no longer makes any sense.

Kudos to you, El Caballo, and thanks for some great moments. But it’s time to ride off into the Houston sunset.

Calm after the storm, or eye of the hurricane?

So the 2011 MLB non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and the Astros were expectedly very active. Though perhaps surprisingly less active than some/most had expected or predicted. But I don’t believe that they’re done dealing yet.

Hunter Pence is gone. Michael Bourn is gone. Jeff Keppinger is gone, too, and 9 prospects have come back in return for that trio so far, with one more yet to be named. I’m… numb. Sad. And worn out. Though less sad at this time this year than I was one year ago (Bourn & Pence don’t have nearly the Houston legacy that Oswalt & Berkman did). And maybe… more hopeful for the future now, too. Last year’s trades were a sign that the Astros recognized the need to rebuild, but other moves (like the Wandy/Myers extensions) were signs that they hadn’t yet fully embraced the idea. There’s no question that they’re in full-on rebuilding mode now. As well they should be.

It would be easy to argue that Ed Wade should have received more in return on any or all of the deals he made this month, and I might even agree with that. I’d be a good deal more enthusiastic if Domonic Brown and Mike Minor were wearing Astros pinstripes tomorrow. But regardless of what anyone – myself included – may think, reality is that the trade value for Pence & Bourn was never going to be higher than it was this week. They needed to be dealt now for the best possible return, and if this was the best than anyone else was willing to give up for them – so be it. Pull the trigger. We’ll never know if a better deal could have been had, so there’s no point in wasting further energy moaning about it now. We’ll take what we’ve got and move on. As is always true in any trade involving prospects, we won’t know for years whether these deals were honestly good ones or bad ones anyway.

What we do know now is this – the Houston farm system is notably stronger today than it was a month ago. I believe it will get stronger still this month, too, as I expect at least Wandy to find a new home before September 1, and very possibly Myers or Michaels or Barmes as well. If Myers and Wandy aren’t dealt in August, they’ll be traded over the winter, which is fine, as they don’t have the same urgency for maximum value as Bourn & Pence. Michaels and Barmes will (and should be) allowed to walk as free agents if not dealt, leaving Carlos Lee (35) as by far the elder statesman on the 2012 club. Unless by some miracle they manage to move Lee too, which would be great news for Brett Wallace and which should perhaps be the top priority for a rebuilding club. That would leave Brandon Lyon (31) as the highest paid and oldest regular on the 2012 club; I don’t expect they’ll be able to get anyone to take him on after his health & performance this season.

We also know that the Astros should officially have a new owner by the end of August. I expect we’ll have a new GM this winter, as well, and it wouldn’t shock me to see a new field manager too. Whatever else may happen, the 2012 Astros will be much younger, much less experienced… but hopefully the start of great new things. Only time will tell, but at least we know now they’re not holding onto delusions of past glories any longer. The fastest way back to success from here is to tear it down and start over.

Wish List for a Lost Season

“Wild, dark times are rumbling toward us.” -Heinrich Heine

These are sad days to be an Astros fan. The first domino has fallen with the trade of Jeff Keppinger this week, and over the next 10 days we expect to hear of several more. I’m on board with that; our Astros, in their 50th season, appear to be worse in 2011 than they’ve ever been before. I feel like it will be a huge upset if they don’t end up beating the 1991 squad for the worst record in Houston history, if they don’t end up over 100 losses and last in the big leagues this year. Admittedly, nothing that happens the remainder of this month will likely be quite as depressing as the weekend before July 31 last year, when we learned how it would have felt to see Bagwell and Biggio in opposing uniforms. But as we wait for news about who else is leaving town, and as we wait to face nemesis Carlos Zambrano this afternoon, my mind turns to thoughts of the ways that Brad Mills & Co. can make the remainder of 2011 more exciting than a race for the #1 draft pick.

Catcher: We love Humberto Quintero. He’s not Brad Ausmus, and he’s not Tony Eusebio, but we love him nonetheless. Q paired with any available backup on hand is fine; there’s not much wrong you can do here, other than rushing Jason Castro back from his knee surgery. If Castro is legitimately ready to go by September, then I’d love to see him, as Q really shouldn’t be more than a backup. But as long as Jason gets the lion’s share of the starts in 2012, then I’ll be happy.

First Base: Brett Wallace. All the way. Let’s start seeing Brick every day regardless, and quit with this Carlos-Lee-at-1B-versus-lefties nonsense. Whether Astros management manages to trade El Caballo, releases him, benches him or just lets him play out his contract, it’s certain that Lee won’t be here beyond September 2012. Brett Wallace will. You’re not gonna win this season, it’s overwhelmingly likely that you won’t win next season either, and Brick is one of the few young talents that Houston has, so let him play and prove for himself whether he’s an everyday guy or only a platoon player.

Second Base: Jose Altuve is the brightest spot in the 2011 season so far. I certainly didn’t expect to see him before September at the soonest, or 2012, but I’m all about running him out there every day now that he’s here. I like Matt Downs a lot, but giving him or Angel Sanchez even 1/4 of the starts here would be infuriating. Let’s go, Mighty Mouse!!

Third Base: I’m a Chris Johnson kinda guy. Sure, I know that his defense is less than great, and his bat has dropped off even more than expected from last year, but his bat has also been a lot better the last several weeks than it was during a dismal start to the season, so his overall numbers are misleading. I know that Matt Downs deserves more time, too, but CJ has not (IMO) played himself out of this job yet. Let him keep it for the rest of 2011, unless he gets awful again, then let him and Downs duke it out in Kissimmee next Spring.

Shortstop: This is a tough one. As long as Clint Barmes is here, the job should be his, but I don’t see Clint in our long-term plans. He may not even be in our plans at all (hello, Milwaukee) after the next 10 days. But if/when he’s gone? Angel Sanchez is great off the bench, and I know that Matt Downs is more of a 2B/3B guy than SS, but this is where I’d be inclined to give Downs more time. If you want to give Angel the majority of the starts, that’s fine, but don’t let him take time away from Altuve and CJ. And don’t go back to Tommy Manzella. This is a stop-gap position until one of our middle infield prospects (Paredes? Villar? Mier? …Sutil?) is ready for the Show.

Outfield: No one knows what to expect here. I strongly doubt that Ed Wade will be able to send Carlos Lee anywhere, so as long as he’s here, leave him in LF. Michael Bourn is (or should be) serious trade bait, but Hunter Pence’s name is drawing a lot more attention than Michael’s, so who knows if he’ll be moved at all. I really… don’t want the Astros to trade Hunter, but reality is that he’ll likely hit free agency by the time that Houston is a legitimate contender again, and he should fetch better prospects than anyone else on the current Astros roster. So moving him might be the smartest thing that they could do, and I kind of expect now that it will happen. I’d really like to see Bourn traded, too; he’ll hit free agency – under Scott Boras – a year before Hunter, so you’ll probably get more for him now than next year, when he would be a “rental.” Jason Bourgeois is back from the DL today, so assuming that Pence and Bourn move and Lee doesn’t, I’d like to see a Lee-Bourgeois-Bogusevic outfield to finish out 2011. Though I know we’re more likely to see Jason Michaels than Bogey, but I don’t see Jason here beyond this year either, so I’ll be frustrated if they don’t give Bogey the shot. Unless they get somebody back in trade that can play outfield immediately, too. Or they put J.D. Martinez on the Altuve Express and don’t make him wait for a call until El Caballo rides off into the sunset. Summary: Whatever. But just not Michaels.

Pitching: Jordan Lyles is the other brightest spot for the 2011 Astros, and I’m thrilled to hear that he’s on an innings limit. If that means we get a month of Nelson Figueroa or Ryan Rowland-Smith in September, so be it; Jordan Lyles is VERY much a part of Houston’s future plans, so he needs to be protected more than the 2011 squad needs to win one or two more games. Bud Norris has been another big bright spot, better than I thought he’d be, so he should be a part of the grander plan as well. J.A. Happ has been mostly a black hole this season, but he is still young, so there’s no harm in continuing to run him out there and hope that he figures it out. Really though, we might see a lot more of Figgy or Hyphen before September, because I don’t expect Wandy or Brett Myers to be wearing Houston pinstripes after next week either. So let’s move Aneury Rodriguez back to the rotation and see what he’s got. Old or not, I’d love to see Andy Van Hekken get a shot. Then if you need a starter after those two guys, give Figgy or Hyphen a call. Of course trade acquisitions are the wild card here, too, but based on who we know we’ve got, I’ll be happy to finish the year with Aneury and Andy at the back end of the rotation.

I know that I haven’t touched on the bullpen, but that’s been so fluid for the last few years that I hesitate to name names. I like Mark Melancon a lot, and Wilton Lopez. We know that Brandon Lyon is under contract for next season – fine. He’s good when healthy. But the fundamental point of this whole exercise is to say: Give the young guys a chance. Angel Sanchez is not your savior for the future, nor is Jason Michaels. Nor is Carlos Lee at first base. If we can see more Castro, and Wallace, and Altuve, and CJ, more Bogey and Bourgeois and maybe some J.D. next year, then I’ll be excited even if we lose 100 games again. I know that even all of those guys aren’t likely the long-term answers, but they’re all a step in the right direction until the pipeline on the farm starts a steady flow again. If “these are our Astros,” then let’s make that so and stop giving time to guys that won’t be here when our future Astros arrive.

Cooperstown Calling

As we count down the final days to the start to Spring Training, I’ve been wanting to take the opportunity to talk about the one other big bit of Astros-related news this winter: Jeff Bagwell and the Hall of Fame.

We already know the results of this year’s voting. Bagwell became a buzzword and an unfair scapegoat this winter for PED usage and how it affects HOF induction. I won’t argue in depth a case that’s already been argued to death, but the bottom line is that Bagwell has never, ever been connected to PED usage. I didn’t expect him to get elected this year, because he didn’t reach the magic 500-homer or 3000-hit plateaus that seem to be required for first-ballot election. But it’s absurd to label him a “marginal” candidate because of that, and even more absurd to try and exclude him from the Hall based on the possible chance that maybe he might have at some point potentially considered using PEDs during his playing days. Unless concrete evidence to the contrary suddenly emerges, the PED issue should have no effect on Bagwell’s candidacy. Period. And as for his “marginal” status – Baseball Prospectus ranks Bagwell as the fourth-greatest first baseman of all-time based on their JAWS metric, ahead of other such “marginal” candidates as Jimmie Foxx, Ernie Banks, Willie McCovey, Rod Carew and Eddie Murray. He belongs in Cooperstown, end of discussion, and it will be a crime if he never makes it in.

Fortunately, the voting results this year actually weren’t that bad for Bagwell, so it seems now more of a question of when he gets in than if. The purpose of this post is to examine that question. To that end, let’s look at other HOF candidates who posted similar percentages in their first year on the ballot.

In the last 30 years, five other players besides Bagwell have received vote totals in the 40% range their first go round:

1993: Steve Garvey (41.6%)
1998: Gary Carter (42.3%)
2002: Andre Dawson (45.3%)
2003: Lee Smith (42.3%)
2003: Ryne Sandberg (49.2%)
2011: Jeff Bagwell (41.7%)

Of those other five, three (Carter, Dawson, Sandberg) are now enshrined in Cooperstown, one (Smith) is still on the ballot, and one (Garvey) stayed on the ballot for 15 years before he ran out of chances. Examining their cases one by one:

Steve Garvey: Garvey was a long-time Dodgers first baseman, a ten-time All-Star and the 1974 NL MVP. He racked up 2599 career hits (to Bagwell’s 2314) with a .294 career batting average (to Bagwell’s .297), so the two would at first seem comparable. Bagwell and Garvey also both won Gold Gloves and MVP awards. But Bagwell put up much better numbers in HRs (449 v. 272), RBIs (1529 v. 1308), and OPS (.948 v. .775), and that in four fewer seasons. Bagwell also ranks 57th all-time in career WAR (79.9), leading the league twice and posting top 10 finishes six times, whereas Garvey never broke the top 10 and ranks 513th all-time. Garvey was a very good player, but not a great one, and that’s reflected in that he only once ever posted a higher percentage in HOF voting (42.6% in ’95) than in his first year on the ballot.

Gary Carter: The great Expos and Mets catcher was elected to the Hall in 2003 after his sixth appearance on the ballot. After earning 42.3% of the vote on his first go, he dropped to 33.8% the next year, then gained ground every year after that (49.7%, 64.9%, 72.7%) before he finally received 78% in ’03. The Kid’s career 66.3 WAR is good for 106th all-time, but significantly lower than Bagwell’s 79.9.

Andre Dawson: The Hawk was finally a member of the HOF class last year on his 9th try. After posting 45.3% on his first ballot, he held or gained ground every year thereafter but one (50%, 50%, 52.3%, 61%, 56.7%, 65.9%, 67%) until 2010’s 77.9% pushed him over the 75% required for election. Dawson was four times in the top 10 in WAR, earning 57.0 for his career, 178th best ever.

Lee Smith: Lee Smith has had nine turns on the ballot so far, earning 42.3% on his first go round and hovering in that neighborhood ever since. Since his first year on the ballot in 2003, Smith has received 36.6%, 38.8%, 45%, 39.8%, 43.3%, 44.5%, 47.3% and 45.3% of the HOF vote. He’s #3 on the all-time career saves list and one of the pioneers of the modern “closer” role in baseball, which is what his candidacy is primarily based on. But it seems that the BBWAA is still struggling to decide what to do with relievers when it comes to the Hall of Fame. WAR has become an increasingly important stat to voters in recent years, so Smith’s ranking as 698th all-time doesn’t do him many favors (though it does put him well ahead of fellow closer and Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers at 927th). He may or may not eventually make it in – he’ll get six more tries – but his situation is so different from Bagwell’s that comparisons are almost impossible.

Ryne Sandberg: Ryno was one of my favorite non-Astros as a kid, so I was well pleased when he got elected to the Hall in 2005, his third time on the ballot. After gathering 49.2% for his initial tally, he got 61.1% in 2004, then made it in with 76.2% of the vote. Sandberg has weaker career stats than Bagwell in almost every major offensive category (though Sandberg did get 72 more hits, but in about 600 more at bats). However, Sandberg played most of his career at 2B – a traditionally weaker offensive position than 1B – so he’s rightfully regarded as one of the best offensive second basemen of all-time. He has a career WAR rank of #139, finishing in the top 10 in the league five times.

All other things being equal, it would seem that Jeff Bagwell has a stronger Hall of Fame argument than all of these other five players, three of whom are already in Cooperstown and one of whom may yet make it. One made it in three tries, one made it in six and one in nine, so there’s no clear trend in the voting history, making it hard to predict when Baggy might finally get the call, but I’ll venture a guess anyway.

Looking at the most recent two years of voting, Roberto Alomar saw a jump of 16.3% from his first year on the ballot to his second. We know that, whether justifiable or not, a certain percentage of the HOF voting body believes in the sanctity of the first ballot. This is reflected perhaps most dramatically in Alomar’s percentages, as he’s the first player ever to be elected with 90% of the vote not on the first ballot. A certain percentage of voters no doubt withheld their votes for him in 2010 based on his 1996 spitting incident involving umpire John Hirschbeck, but it’s impossible to know what that exact percentage is. So, for argument’s sake, let’s say that those 16.3% are the first ballot purists. If Bagwell were to see a similar jump in his votes next year, that would place him at 58%; if for two years, that would place him at an excruciatingly close 74.3% in 2013.

So it’s a fairly sure bet that Bagwell won’t make it in next year either, but 2013 ought to afford him his first great chance. Alomar has a career WAR total of 63.5 and a career rank of 126th (as opposed to Bagwell’s 79.9 and 57th), so it’s not unrealistic to imagine Bagwell gaining at least an equal or greater percentage each year. 2013 will be Craig Biggio’s first year on the ballot, too, and of course Biggio did reach that magic 3000 hit mark, so he’s got a great shot on his first ballot (every other 3000-hit club member since 1953 has been elected on the first ballot except for Pete Rose and Rafael Palmeiro). How many career teammates like Bagwell and Biggio have there been in recent years? How many people would love to see them enshrined together?

The concern about 2013 that some have expressed is the number of other stellar candidates appearing on the ballot then and soon thereafter. But this is wh
ere the PED controversy might actually help Bagwell’s chances rather than hurt him. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling will all be first-time candidates along with Craig Biggio that year. But Bonds, Clemens and Sosa all have ties to PEDs, and Bagwell should have a much stronger case – especially in his third year – than both Schilling and Piazza. With Bagwell and Biggio both clear of any PED evidence, wouldn’t the voters love to honor them in contrast?

I’ve never been to Cooperstown, but I’ve always wanted to go. Summer of 2013 will be, I expect, a once-in-a-lifetime event for all Astros fans. I’m planning a trip already.

OTHER NEWS

Joel Roza of the Corpus Christi Caller agrees with me on a Carlos Lee for Michael Young trade. Luke Truxal of MLBcenter.com also says that Lee-for-Young “makes the most sense.” At this point I still expect either 1. Colorado or 2. no one to end up acquiring Young, but we still haven’t heard an official “nay” from anyone in the Astros camp, which we have heard from pretty much every other club that has been linked to him. C’mon, Ed & Drayton!

And now we get the news that Michael Bourn has hired Scott Boras as his agent. Michael, I am disappoint. You’re still my favorite Astro these days, but I don’t expect to see you in Houston after 2012, and I won’t shed a tear when you (or your agent) is gone.

Lee for Young unlikely? Not so fast.

As the snow comes down here in Arkansas, rumors about Michael Young continue to swirl. Both Brian McTaggart and Richard Justice have tried to shoot down the Young-to-Houston racket, but not so fast, says I.

We know that Young has a list of eight teams he likes. We know that the Rangers are trying to work out a deal with one of those eight teams first. While Young has said that he would evaluate other possible destinations on a case-by-case basis, the most likely outcome remains that he’ll end up going to one of those eight. And if you look objectively at that list of eight teams, suddenly Young-to-Houston doesn’t seem like as much of a longshot as most are trying to claim.

Take a look at that rumors link above: Young’s list consists of the Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Angels and Padres. The Rockies seemed like the most likely destination up until now, but they’ve taken themselves out of the running. The Cardinals, Twins and Yankees are also reportedly uninterested, so that leaves Houston and the three SoCal teams. The Padres already traded Adrian Gonzalez this winter because they couldn’t afford him, so it would be shocking if they were willing to take on a contract like Young’s. The Angels could definitely use Young, but I don’t foresee Texas trading him to a division rival, and the L.A. Times says that the Angels can’t/won’t put together a satisfactory package for the Rangers anyway. That same article implies that the Dodgers would want Texas to pick up most of Young’s contract, which seems unlikely, and the Dodgers themselves have already spent a lot this winter. Their ownership situation is even more uncertain than Houston’s, with Frank McCourt’s divorce case still pending, so it wouldn’t follow that the Dodgers would be willing to open their wallet even wider.

Seven suitors down. Who does that leave?

True, under normal circumstances, the Astros would never willingly take on a contract like Young’s either. Even if the team wasn’t for sale, adding that kind of payroll wouldn’t make sense for this squad. But if Carlos Lee goes back to Texas the other way, Houston’s payroll would actually be less this year and next. The Rangers could send money to Houston with Young to offset at least part of his 2013 salary, without taking on most of his contract as any SoCal team would require, so it wouldn’t really break the Astros’ (and their new owner’s) budget either. Texas would get the power hitting DH-type that is unavailable to them on the open market now, Houston would get a much more versatile and well-rounded player in return, and both teams could be the better for it without significant new financial burden that would normally affect any team in dealing with contracts of this size.

Carlos Lee would still have to approve a trade to the Rangers, which Richard Justice claims is unlikely, but I disagree. I outlined in my post yesterday why it seems that Texas would actually be an appealing destination to Caballo, so I don’t think that would break the deal. Young’s overall stats look better than Lee’s, so Texas might ask for more than just Carlos in return, but supposedly they’d like utility infield help. Houston happens to have a surplus of reserve infielders after their moves this winter – including Jeff Keppinger, Angel Sanchez, Tommy Manzella and Matt Downs – so they could easily include any of those guys in the package. Ed Wade was reportedly shopping Kepp until he came up injured anyway, and with Kepp’s own salary likely to increase through arbitration the next couple of seasons, that could offset Young’s added salary even more. Texas would want medical assurances before accepting Keppinger, of course, but he’s one of the best all-around utility infielders in the game, in my opinion. If I was Nolan Ryan, I’d make that trade even if I knew that I’d be without him for April.

I won’t say yet that I expect the trade to happen. Several people will have to sign off on the deal before it could ever become reality. But I will say that I won’t be surprised if it happens, either, as I don’t think it’s half as unlikely as it’s been made out to be. All of the speculation against so far has been just that – speculation – so until we hear from Ed Wade or Drayton McLane or Carlos Lee directly, I’m counting nothing out.

Every other non-Pirates team in the division made significant strides forward this winter except for Houston. Looking at WAR alone, Michael Young over Carlos Lee would be a 4.3 game upswing for the Astros, based on last year’s stats. Unless Wade & McLane are completely content with hanging onto Carlos until his contract expires, they have to be exploring possibilities to move him this year, before his full no-trade clause goes into effect as a 10/5 veteran. This could be the opportunity they’ve been looking for, and they very well may not get another chance to receive back as much value as Young could provide.

One commenter on Brian McTaggart’s blog speculated this batting order for the Astros in 2011:

1. Bourn (CF)
2. Young (2B)
3. Pence (RF)
4. Wallace (1B) or Johnson (3B)
5. Hall (LF)
6. Johnson (3B) or Wallace (1B)
7. Barmes (SS)
8. Castro (C)

Does that really look so bad?

Lee-for-Young? Yes, please.

lee_young.jpgSwapping jerseys for 2011?

So for the first time since that fateful weekend at the end last July, the Astros are linked to a potential high profile move. (That’s not counting one wild rumor that said Houston was in on Cliff Lee, but obviously that went nowhere if it was ever true at all.) Zach Levine and Ken Rosenthal both say that Carlos Lee-for-Michael Young is a longshot at best, and they’re likely right. But. Roy Oswalt was supposed to be a Cardinal last July, remember? Lance Berkman was supposedly going to Oakland this winter. The Dodgers were about to sign Bill Hall. And Cliff Lee was darn sure going to either the Rangers or the Yankees before he suddenly inked his name in Independence Hall. Take every rumor (including this one) with a significantly sized spoonful of salt.

I was going to offer my analysis of this potential deal, but FanGraphs has already done it better. The Crawfish Boxes also have a nice analysis. TCB’s biggest concern seems to be “the inevitable loss of power in the lineup,” but… really? Young has outslugged El Caballo each of the last two seasons, and while Lee has more homers, the difference is not huge – 50 v. 43. Add in Barmes & Hall’s plus power over Keppinger & Manzella/Sanchez, and this team would certainly hit more homers this year than last.
The biggest obstacle I foresee, besides Texas deciding whether or not they actually want Lee, is Carlos’ willingness to waive his no-trade clause to go to Arlington. But if he was to go anywhere besides Houston, there’s nowhere else in MLB closer to his ranch than Arlington. He’d be getting the chance to play for the defending AL champs, on a team that is more than likely playoff bound, instead of a team that’s rebuilding and very likely won’t see the postseason again until after his contract expires. At which point Houston almost certainly would not re-sign him and he’d be forced to go elsewhere anyway, older and with an even smaller remaining window for a World Series. Caballo’s only sniff of the playoffs so far was way back in 2000, when his White Sox got swept in the ALDS by Seattle. Unless he really cares that much about being as close as possible to his ranch, I don’t see him having any problem agreeing to Arlington.
I’ve said it before, and it’s still true – I’m not nearly as eager as most Astros fans to run Lee out of town after an ugly 2010. He’s very likely to rebound this year, and if he stays in Houston until his contract expires – fine. I like Carlos. But it’s not fine if he blocks Brett Wallace, or J.D. Martinez, or even Koby Clemens. Michael Young is under contract for a year longer, true, but his versatility would allow the Astros to move him around much more easily than Lee based on what their young guys are doing, so they wouldn’t have to block anybody that’s big-league ready.
I like the move – unless Texas demands much more than Lee in exchange. Would they take an injured Jeff Keppinger? I might be okay with that, since Wade was evidently wanting to trade Kepp anyway, though I’d rather Houston hang onto him as a super-utility guy. If the Rangers want either Manzella or Sanchez for infield depth, then fine, throw them in. But absolutely NO if they also want someone – anyone – among Houston’s prospects in return.
Lee-for-Young. Work out the details and pull the trigger, Ed. Give Astros fans something to be excited about until the young guys steal our hearts.

To market, to market

This week’s series in Washington clearly didn’t go the way Brad Mills & Co. would have liked. The Astros came into town needing to win at least three of the four games to have a realistic shot at that .500 record – and really, they should have won three of these four – but they ended up losing three of four instead. Mathematically, they’ve still got a shot at .500 and/or catching the Cardinals, but realistically, it’s time to place the emphasis on gearing up for 2011. In 10 days, there will be no more Astros baseball until February 27 of next year.

Thus begins the long five-month wait without baseball. Every baseball fan’s favorite pastime during the winter is to play armchair GM and argue about the personnel moves they believe their team should make before the next season. I’m no different, and I’ve already talked about two potential big signings in previous posts. Putting on my Ed Wade hat, I present my off-season Astros shopping list:
  1. Trade Carlos Lee. I don’t hate the guy like some do, but the Astros are in a different place now than they were when they signed him, and they have other guys that could better fill his roster spot in the final two years of his contract. They’ll probably have to eat a good portion of his salary to move him, but so be it. If they can bring back a shortstop or a healthy big league starter in return, do it!
  2. Put in an offer on Carl Crawford. After they likely lose out on him, go put in an offer on Pat Burrell. Burrell has a 2.6 WAR for San Francisco in LF this season (versus Lee’s -1.6); he should provide at least as much offense as Lee has this season, for less money, on a two-year deal with no restrictions on trading him should youngsters develop faster or better than expected. If they lose out on Burrell too, keep the money and hand Brian Bogusevic the starting job in LF.
  3. Put in an offer on Jon Garland. Houston very nearly snagged him via trade before the 2007 season, only to end up with Jason Jennings instead. (Oops.) You have four rotation spots locked up in Myers, Rodriguez, Happ and Norris, but I’m still not sold enough on Bud’s consistency to hand him the #4 spot outright. Felipe Paulino was looking great before he got hurt, but he’s yet to stay healthy through an entire big league season. Brian Moehler could be a reliable #5 guy, but he’s also old and has been hurt a lot. Nelson Figueroa looked great through his first four starts and has looked not so great through his last four. And Jordan Lyles is still very young; I’d rather give him a full season at AAA. I’m more comfortable signing another innings eater like Garland and giving the #5 spot to Bud.
  4. Resign Humberto Quintero, Geoff Blum and Jason Michaels for the bench. They’ve mixed well with Houston’s youngsters so far, so if it ain’t broke, why fix it?
  5. Lock up Wandy on a long-term deal. Brett Myers got his extension; it’s Wandy’s turn! Hunter Pence deserves a long-term deal too, but he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season, so they’ve got some time to work with him yet.
I realize that this team could use a shortstop too, but the free agent class there this year is underwhelming at best (Alex Gonzalez? Julio Lugo?), so I’d rather stick with Angel Sanchez if they can’t get a starting shortstop back in return for Lee. Given all of that, my ideal Opening Day 2011 roster would look like this:
C: Jason Castro
1B: Brett Wallace
2B: Jeff Keppinger
SS: trade/Angel Sanchez
3B: Chris Johnson
LF: Carl Crawford/Pat Burrell/Brian Bogusevic
CF: Michael Bourn
RF: Hunter Pence
C: Humberto Quintero
IF: Geoff Blum
IF: Angel Sanchez/Tommy Manzella
OF: Jason Michaels
OF: Brian Bogusevic (or Jason Bourgeois if Bogusevic is starting)
SP: Brett Myers
SP: Wandy Rodriguez
SP: J.A. Happ
SP: Jon Garland/Bud Norris
SP: Bud Norris (or Paulino/Figueroa/Moehler)
RP: Wilton Lopez
RP: Fernando Abad
RP: Alberto Arias
RP: Mark Melancon
RP: Jeff Fulchino/Tim Byrdak
RP: Matt Lindstrom
CP: Brandon Lyon
What say you?